Why Defence and a quality Playmaker matters for Premiership success

Looking for the NRL premiership Winner?

Let's start by looking at who can defend and the consistency of the quality of defence, week in week out. It wins premierships.

Then the quality of the individual playmakers. With out the marquee rep 7 or 6 you are just making up the numbers.

Finals Facts

• 19 of the last 24 Premiers have won the comp off the back of finishing top 4, winning week one and having a week off into their Prelim final game (and then winning)
• In 2021 Panthers lost week 1 to then go on and win the Premiership
• 15 of last 17 Premiers were one of the Top 2 defensive sides that season
• 6 of the last 8 grand finalists who had played 4 weeks straight, have lost (Panthers went 4 weeks straight last season 2021)
• No Origin or International Rep #7 or #6 – no chance
• In the last 43 years, 41 of the 43 Premiership winners had a rep (Origin or International) #7 or #6

Even in today's game with quicker game speed, more expansive use of the ball and at times more attack points, the cream of quality defence still rises to the top when it matters – the top of the table and then a Grand Final berth.

• 15 of the last 17 premiership winners finished as one of the top 2 defensive teams.

Bingo! Therein lies the key point. Jack Gibson, Warren Ryan, Wayne Bennett, then Craig Bellamy, then Ivan Cleary, each of those who we now regard as high-quality coaches have built their long-term records on a foundation of quality defence.

Dig a little deeper into the longer-term records of Bellamy and Cleary (Warriors and then Panthers), for example, and you see all but each and every year their teams are positioned in the top 2 to top 4 defensively ranked side season after season. Bellamy’s record over the last 15 years is staggering, and all of this through periods where the defensive structures have changed or evolved from up and in; compressed lines (defending 60% width of field); edge slide to then various variations or combinations of all. Add in marker defensive roles, left and right and fullbacks defending in the line in the final 15 mtr zone. Through all of this the best are the best.

Some coaches can coach it, many can’t, and the numbers (and results) don’t lie.

No Origin or International Rep #7 or #6 – No Chance

Across the last 43 years 41 of the 43 Premiership winners had a rep (Origin or International) #7 or #6

The importance of a quality Playmaker – #7 or #6 calling the shorts and directing play toward winning the premiership title has stood the test of time. So much so that 36 of the last 38 premiership titles have been won by sides who have had a Origin or International representative playmaker in their halves combinations, even across the last 10 or so years with many coaches favouring an even more highly structured approach with left and right playmakers. 

The only two sides to win the comp without a Rep #7 or #6 were the 2014 Rabbitohs and 1980 Canterbury teams, but in both instances they were to win with key playmakers who were to then go on to rep honours. The 2014 Rabbitohs side had Adam Reynolds calling the shots at #7 who has since gone on to be a NSW Origin rep, while the 1980 Canterbury title winners did so with that year with Gary Hughes at #6 and Steve Mortimer at #7. Mortimer went on to an illustrious rep career but his first rep honours were not until the following season, 1981.

Over the course of history the list of NRL title winners has been dominated by some of the greats playing their role at #7 or #6 – Mortimer; Sterling (and Kenny); Hasler; Stuart (and Daley); Langer (and Walters); Johns; Fittler and Lockyer to mention the obvious, each leading their respective teams to premiership glory. Through recent years we have then seen the likes of Cronk (Storm) and now Thurston (Cowboys) join this illustrious list. 

Penrith 1991 – Greg Alexander – Halfback

Storm 1999 – Brett Kimmorley – Halfback

Penrith 2003 – Craig Gower – Halfback

Bulldogs 2004 – Braith Anasta – Five-Eight

West Tigers 2005 – Scott Prince – Halfback

Dragons 2010 – Jamie Soward – Halfback

A full list of Premiership winners can be viewed here

NRL Expert Tips  – Reading The Play

Gerard Condon and Gerard Barton combine to present our NRL tips content.

MrG

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years, including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club, Gerard Condon is a long-term avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game, assessing the strengths and weaknesses of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrGB

Gerard Barton started his rugby league story when playing at the age of six, running around in the bush for the Forbes Magpies before eventually landing at Dubbo CYMS. The highlight? Captaining the Dubbo CYMS Under 18s to a premiership – with a young bloke named Andrew Ryan watching on from the bench. 

Like any mad Eels supporter, he went from screaming at the TV to putting his money where his mouth was. What began as casual NRL punting slowly evolved into something much deeper – a full-blown obsession with data analysis. A love for the game then grew into a love for what the play and stats can and can't tell you about the outcome. But here's what matters: GB is a footy headfirst, and self-taught maths and data nerd second. You've got to know the game before you crunch the numbers. Stats don't play football – blokes do. Understanding that distinction is everything.

These days, GB is deep into modelling the key performance areas that actually influence outcomes. Pre-game team forecasts, AI-assisted analysis, the works. It's about finding the edge where footy knowledge meets data science.

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